The electrification of transport: episode two

One of the strategic themes expected to shape our long run operating environment is the electrification of transport.

This is the second episode in a series on this vital topic.

The first episode in this series updated our long run forecasts on the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in the light duty fleet.

This episode turns its attention to the types of batteries that are expected to power this fleet over time – and the amount of nickel that will be required to produce them.

The batteries that will drive the mass market EVs of the future will be expected to provide adequate energy to replicate or exceed the performance of an internal combustion engine; and to do so while:

• storing and discharging sufficient energy to sustain that performance for a minimum of 200 miles on a single charge;
• being light and compact enough to not unduly compromise on performance, cabin comfort and storage;
• exhibiting an adequate cycle life calibrated to the life of the vehicle itself;
• being rechargeable in a reasonably competitive period of time;
• doing all of the above safely; and
• delivering these services at the bargain cost of less than $100 per kWh.

Putting that in other terms, a battery capable of enabling an EV takeover of the light vehicle market must be powerful, energy dense, thermally stable, capable of being recharged thousands of times, and reach a high charge in a matter of minutes. It must also use raw materials that are in reliable supply and are reasonably priced.

So, how did we go about addressing this multi-faceted problem?

The first task is of course to assess the current set of commercialised technologies on this range of criteria. Within the dominant Lithium-ion “genus”, the key battery chemistry “species” are Lithium-Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (hereafter NMC); Lithium-Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminium (NCA); Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP); Lithium-Manganese Oxide (LMO); and Lithium-Manganese-Nickel Oxide (LMNO). The proportions of each material in these chemistries are denoted as shares of ten. For example, for the NMC 5-3-2 “sub-species”, that means 5 units of nickel, 3 of manganese and 2 of cobalt in the battery cathode.

Examples of the commercial use of these chemistries are the first generation Nissan Leaf (LMO); Tesla (NCA), Chinese brands like first generation BYD (LFP), while NMC chemistries are commonly used in the EV offerings of western automakers, such as the Chevy Bolt.

It is useful to visualise our assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of these species and sub-species. Our preferred method for doing so is to use five axes to capture in a single snapshot the absolute and relative benefits of each technological option. The origin on the chart represents the uncompetitive frontier (in our estimation), and a score of 9 at the extremity of each axis (corresponding to the US Department of Energy’s standard 1-9 scale of technological readiness) represents the best of breed.¹