Economic and Commodity Outlook

The BHP Economic and Commodity Outlook is our annual report produced by BHP that considers the near-term macroeconomic and operational environment, and associated impact on commodity markets. It also discusses global megatrends, including development and decarbonisation drivers, and demand growth for commodities out to 2050. 

The outlook provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors that have affected the global economy and commodity markets in the last six months, and how BHP considers longer-dated megatrends facing our industry. From the macroeconomic backdrop in China, India and the major advanced economies, to the developments taking shape in iron ore, copper, coal, nickel and potash, this report covers the latest forces shaping the mining sector and the world.

Growing demand for metals and minerals is increasingly linked with the global drive towards low-carbon energy generation and storage technologies and decarbonisation objectives. BHP produces essential resources the world needs to decarbonise and develop more sustainably, including copper for the expanded electricity networks critical to the energy transition, nickel for the batteries needed to power  electric vehicles and higher-quality iron ore and metallurgical coal for the steel needed to build our cities and create new infrastructure, such as fast trains and wind turbines.

China continues to be the largest importer of Australian commodities, specifically iron ore. In September 2023, BHP achieved a milestone of three billion tonnes of high-quality iron ore shipped to China from its Port Hedland operations in Western Australia. 

Iron ore is Australia’s top export. Australia produces low-cost, high-quality iron ore with the largest iron ore deposits located in Western Australia. This includes BHPs Western Australia Iron Ore business containing five mines in the Pilbara region.

Australia is also the world’s largest exporter of coal with BHP operating Australia’s biggest coal mine, Peak Downs, located in the Bowen Basin of central Queensland.

The energy transition will require large-scale capital investment in critical minerals, with estimates of an additional US$100 billion per year required for the resources sector - if the world is to meet demand associated with achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

In a 1.5 degree scenario the world is expected to require significant multiples of metals and minerals in the coming three decades compared to the last three – two times as much copper, four times as much nickel, twice as much steel, twice as much potash – and so on for the other critical metals and minerals.

BHP’s estimate is that under a plausible 1.5 degree scenario, the copper industry could require around 250 billion US dollars in cumulative growth capital over the next seven years to 2030, and that is over and above sustaining capital.

Potassium is the seventh most abundant element in the Earth’s crust. Potash fertilisers are a critical source of the potassium that crops need to grow. As an essential nutrient for plant growth, potash is a vital link in the global food supply chain. And the demands on that supply chain are intensifying; while cultivated land area will remain almost static, the global population will be close to 10 billion by 2050.

We think demand for potash could double by the late 2040s, by which point it could be a US$50 billion market.