Oil demand has closely followed trends in both regional and global economic activity, with solid growth in the US, China and India contrasting against weakness in Europe and developed Asia.
By 2030, we see the need for new production equivalent to at least one third of total global production today.
The industry’s lack of exploration success in the last half decade and the weak investment in conventional production over the same time period points to the need for known but more costly supply to fill the demand gap.
Looking beyond the 2020s on the demand side, we see an expected peak in the mid–2030s followed by a trend decline. However, this loss of demand is not expected to approach the decline rate of existing fields even beyond the peak in demand.